Sunday, November 24, 2019

CFB Rankings 2019 Week 13


Rank Team Score
1 Ohio State 19.90951161
2 Clemson 14.24540672
3 Wisconsin 11.89002804
4 Alabama 11.41172814
5 Utah 9.878855782
6 LSU 9.238238566
7 Michigan 8.872773658
8 Georgia 8.314298208
9 Notre Dame 7.740326401
10 Oregon 7.457260247
11 Penn State 7.171337814
12 Louisiana 6.882119389
13 Memphis 6.507152485
14 Oklahoma 6.480020513
15 UCF 6.296267775
16 Appalachian State 6.090754778
17 Auburn 5.845087713
18 Minnesota 5.582250556
19 Boise State 5.508687006
20 Cincinnati 5.201702238
21 Florida 5.137382943
22 Air Force 4.885855414
23 Baylor 4.622530732
24 Navy 4.617184024
25 Iowa 4.583666499
26 Iowa State 4.25250872
27 SMU 4.227422841
28 Washington 3.83514538
29 Florida Atlantic 3.468846614
30 Virginia 3.260758539
31 USC 3.17280524
32 Texas A&M 3.152785142
33 Oklahoma State 2.518245181
34 Michigan State 2.308550348
35 Indiana 2.26868744
36 Texas 2.258863126
37 Washington State 2.098021426
38 Virginia Tech 2.095559192
39 Wyoming 2.070447286
40 Miami 1.797299171
41 Western Kentucky 1.67675708
42 Wake Forest 1.642822595
43 San Diego State 1.57260449
44 Kansas State 1.481119975
45 Western Michigan 1.393527832
46 Nebraska 1.365366591
47 Tulane 1.312929954
48 Buffalo 1.295403693
49 TCU 1.097917968
50 Missouri 0.893601334
51 Temple 0.826375673
52 Florida State 0.822871961
53 Louisiana Tech 0.802200862
54 Louisville 0.779580053
55 Kentucky 0.777491916
56 Southern Mississippi 0.71690937
57 Tennessee 0.670499721
58 Mississippi State 0.547603405
59 Illinois 0.385842667
60 BYU 0.346872412
61 Central Michigan 0.274312873
62 Arizona State 0.243948121
63 Hawai'i 0.151230124
64 UAB 0.115111457
65 North Carolina 0.052832871
66 Marshall -0.007011947
67 Ohio -0.07252676
68 Arkansas State -0.358475747
69 Oregon State -0.362707602
70 Ole Miss -0.387603638
71 Pittsburgh -0.416220351
72 Ball State -0.52927228
73 California -0.536021722
74 Boston College -0.541027077
75 Army -0.552823568
76 Texas Tech -0.625045636
77 Miami (OH) -0.665661173
78 Georgia Southern -0.752255342
79 Georgia State -0.846503904
80 Houston -0.989856918
81 Fresno State -1.34727339
82 Troy -1.42998472
83 Purdue -1.595310954
84 Utah State -1.642155766
85 UCLA -1.65816397
86 South Carolina -1.816413099
87 San Jose State -1.886907395
88 Eastern Michigan -1.939757308
89 Charlotte -1.982676203
90 Colorado -2.075327002
91 Duke -2.103171431
92 Coastal Carolina -2.169928873
93 Middle Tennessee -2.233130688
94 Liberty -2.359179536
95 Kent State -2.380084644
96 South Florida -2.469459164
97 Stanford -2.483458058
98 Tulsa -2.688996777
99 Florida International -2.815235812
100 Syracuse -3.177574633
101 Toledo -3.208885289
102 UL Monroe -3.232057737
103 North Texas -3.242466383
104 Arizona -3.37228927
105 Colorado State -3.457385186
106 Northwestern -3.469948384
107 NC State -3.569800145
108 Kansas -3.616331475
109 West Virginia -3.715511178
110 Maryland -4.267504625
111 Rice -4.605815791
112 East Carolina -4.645676275
113 Nevada -4.842469527
114 Georgia Tech -4.927926428
115 Arkansas -5.025809757
116 Northern Illinois -5.129984949
117 New Mexico -6.018339712
118 Old Dominion -6.288195398
119 South Alabama -6.520289147
120 UNLV -6.812402185
121 Texas State -6.831291831
122 Vanderbilt -7.125818668
123 UTSA -7.479398761
124 New Mexico State -8.470690167
125 UConn -8.839749256
126 Rutgers -9.025097744
127 UTEP -9.616235441
128 Bowling Green -12.04294719
129 Akron -14.4439939
130 UMass -20.62483771
Iterations: 22

Sunday, November 17, 2019

CFB Rankings 2019 Week 12

Rank Team Score
1 Ohio State 21.71220128
2 Clemson 14.08457927
3 Alabama 12.47648024
4 Wisconsin 12.17638783
5 Utah 9.973394648
6 LSU 9.149935592
7 Georgia 8.617811384
8 Michigan 8.55605761
9 Penn State 8.462248735
10 Oregon 8.076986414
11 Oklahoma 6.986392639
12 Notre Dame 6.844405913
13 UCF 6.792757105
14 Auburn 6.288236749
15 Minnesota 5.945422977
16 Appalachian State 5.853437658
17 Cincinnati 5.765327295
18 Memphis 5.521458592
19 Louisiana 5.278847843
20 Florida 5.025361762
21 SMU 4.988500046
22 Air Force 4.547294857
23 Washington 4.544987129
24 Navy 4.528854394
25 Iowa 4.518968333
26 Boise State 4.414592817
27 Iowa State 4.246074059
28 Baylor 3.998532179
29 Texas A&M 3.60500228
30 Florida Atlantic 3.374470757
31 Indiana 3.119401695
32 Texas 2.953366804
33 USC 2.872015412
34 Oklahoma State 2.543985187
35 Virginia 2.48360325
36 Michigan State 2.211457067
37 Miami 2.178515253
38 Washington State 2.06929296
39 San Diego State 1.853642718
40 Wyoming 1.7502382
41 Southern Mississippi 1.62449038
42 Kansas State 1.556953967
43 Western Michigan 1.419691077
44 Temple 1.404528589
45 TCU 1.38217355
46 Louisiana Tech 1.373748315
47 Tulane 1.352511896
48 Missouri 1.278326289
49 Wake Forest 1.117522399
50 Virginia Tech 0.862565555
51 Florida State 0.840276548
52 Western Kentucky 0.777727033
53 Buffalo 0.756034105
54 Illinois 0.726509474
55 Pittsburgh 0.668293437
56 Mississippi State 0.660693416
57 Kentucky 0.656941705
58 Marshall 0.652093259
59 Tennessee 0.530655169
60 BYU 0.4627571
61 Central Michigan 0.229462738
62 Boston College 0.228619968
63 Nebraska 0.164769106
64 Arizona State 0.021938073
65 Louisville -0.083864526
66 North Carolina -0.141976763
67 UAB -0.154943442
68 Hawai'i -0.179730436
69 Oregon State -0.282424176
70 Ball State -0.345127343
71 Troy -0.400629961
72 Ole Miss -0.453298223
73 Texas Tech -0.512245391
74 Ohio -0.627325055
75 Miami (OH) -0.641637387
76 Army -0.653052013
77 Georgia Southern -0.688541715
78 Arkansas State -0.750816098
79 California -0.757441903
80 Utah State -0.911991615
81 Fresno State -1.132652571
82 UCLA -1.134398696
83 Purdue -1.177436256
84 Georgia State -1.272032913
85 Houston -1.438788188
86 Liberty -1.60952795
87 South Florida -1.679180901
88 South Carolina -1.78581664
89 Syracuse -1.876406834
90 San Jose State -1.894109843
91 Maryland -1.957600156
92 Duke -1.986723637
93 Tulsa -2.395376201
94 Stanford -2.427281982
95 Coastal Carolina -2.487447083
96 Colorado -2.595077765
97 Toledo -2.654734582
98 Kent State -2.691230525
99 Charlotte -2.968780111
100 North Texas -3.055022094
101 Eastern Michigan -3.080572095
102 Middle Tennessee -3.165645266
103 Arizona -3.181710807
104 Northwestern -3.292427147
105 Colorado State -3.447073808
106 Kansas -3.4787347
107 Florida International -3.674639127
108 West Virginia -3.685150689
109 UL Monroe -3.820022613
110 NC State -3.870032265
111 Northern Illinois -4.278921368
112 Arkansas -4.838683424
113 East Carolina -5.139516507
114 Rice -5.190698201
115 Nevada -5.546614866
116 Georgia Tech -5.626599481
117 Old Dominion -5.873653884
118 New Mexico -6.219479283
119 South Alabama -6.703598092
120 Texas State -6.865259894
121 UTSA -7.728864359
122 UNLV -7.849907608
123 Vanderbilt -7.958257136
124 Rutgers -8.213005113
125 UConn -8.918012731
126 New Mexico State -9.329175094
127 UTEP -9.856475098
128 Bowling Green -11.25723834
129 Akron -15.58524323
130 UMass -21.13048436
Iterations: 21

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

CFB Rankings 2019 Week 11


Rank Team Score
1 Ohio State 23.32468307
2 Wisconsin 12.71791153
3 Clemson 12.49993542
4 Alabama 12.34910008
5 Georgia 9.101452596
6 Penn State 8.921792391
7 LSU 8.79589649
8 Utah 8.645376826
9 Oklahoma 7.823137179
10 Oregon 7.783060837
11 Auburn 7.243670748
12 UCF 6.95552044
13 Michigan 6.932989477
14 Minnesota 6.575504366
15 Navy 6.301996954
16 Cincinnati 6.191743674
17 Louisiana 5.645206585
18 Notre Dame 5.521089489
19 Memphis 5.458442086
20 Appalachian State 5.198794697
21 SMU 5.194318746
22 Iowa State 4.798173067
23 Florida 4.723851998
24 Baylor 4.58186902
25 Air Force 4.523305304
26 Iowa 4.502499429
27 Washington 4.477236729
28 Boise State 3.879161577
29 Indiana 3.627039753
30 Texas 3.491141656
31 Florida Atlantic 3.380174793
32 Michigan State 3.320409546
33 Texas A&M 3.10925299
34 Louisiana Tech 2.869638087
35 Virginia 2.762867282
36 Kansas State 2.328777903
37 Wyoming 2.304389028
38 Oklahoma State 2.271850112
39 Miami 2.12327961
40 Tulane 2.104913743
41 USC 2.09707295
42 Missouri 1.917664328
43 TCU 1.644187463
44 Wake Forest 1.618400368
45 Western Michigan 1.570541391
46 San Diego State 1.522982139
47 Southern Mississippi 1.39345882
48 Temple 1.230953435
49 Mississippi State 1.175321902
50 Buffalo 0.945247652
51 Washington State 0.894111967
52 Western Kentucky 0.695659933
53 Illinois 0.64588915
54 Tennessee 0.574787542
55 Florida State 0.543144965
56 Duke 0.436666718
57 Pittsburgh 0.421843925
58 North Carolina 0.375019459
59 Nebraska 0.364577255
60 Kentucky 0.293957307
61 BYU 0.261923174
62 Central Michigan 0.142908966
63 Arizona State 0.046900876
64 California -0.003007378
65 Virginia Tech -0.032048906
66 Ole Miss -0.160170376
67 Boston College -0.185328498
68 Texas Tech -0.287858893
69 UCLA -0.311410243
70 Ball State -0.323121975
71 Oregon State -0.435909548
72 Georgia State -0.514681996
73 Hawai'i -0.542813515
74 Ohio -0.55812295
75 Marshall -0.561741956
76 Arkansas State -0.603113993
77 Army -0.79104723
78 UAB -0.806261994
79 Louisville -0.808982081
80 Fresno State -0.851101033
81 Houston -0.911316934
82 South Carolina -1.065138248
83 Purdue -1.140103555
84 Miami (OH) -1.21421682
85 Utah State -1.378699366
86 South Florida -1.387705592
87 Troy -1.410385818
88 Stanford -1.480165492
89 Liberty -1.826037667
90 Georgia Southern -1.875137113
91 San Jose State -1.89610299
92 Tulsa -2.08994405
93 Maryland -2.397098634
94 Coastal Carolina -2.664720615
95 Colorado -2.696981877
96 Toledo -2.699890844
97 North Texas -2.723987428
98 UL Monroe -2.871418098
99 Kent State -2.883346118
100 Kansas -2.911914004
101 Arizona -2.94335414
102 Charlotte -3.061644976
103 Middle Tennessee -3.158012366
104 Colorado State -3.229736492
105 Florida International -3.492717551
106 Northwestern -3.524572606
107 Eastern Michigan -3.659135835
108 NC State -3.666491195
109 Georgia Tech -3.809733577
110 West Virginia -4.015915109
111 Syracuse -4.344119782
112 Arkansas -4.648848437
113 East Carolina -4.873190831
114 Northern Illinois -4.926261706
115 Texas State -5.478923047
116 Nevada -5.644302009
117 Rice -5.860972164
118 New Mexico -5.985298177
119 Old Dominion -6.045485483
120 South Alabama -7.339520466
121 Vanderbilt -7.573771291
122 UTSA -7.617332556
123 UNLV -7.806068151
124 UConn -8.311511507
125 UTEP -9.229492506
126 Rutgers -9.258495364
127 Bowling Green -9.993090629
128 New Mexico State -10.85011438
129 Akron -15.59820835
130 UMass -20.58999137

Iterations: 21

College Football Rankings Methodology

These rankings were created to make sense of the crazy college football world we live in, with the playoff committee giving rankings based on arbitrary metrics posed by ESPN and other outlets.  In creating this, I wanted to form an unbiased ranking to show definitively which team is better than others.  The rankings are based strictly on the score of each game and the opponent of the respective game.  Previous seasons are not taken into account in the current season's rankings.  Additionally, only FBS teams are ranked.  Any opponent outside of the (currently) 130 FBS teams is given the rating of the lowest FBS team in the current iteration.

As a starting point, the win-loss percentage of each team is used.  Each game is given a rating per team based on the scoreline of the game and the strength of the opponent played.  Any win, no matter how weak the opponent is, is better than any loss, no matter how strong the opponent.  The ratings of each game are then summed and run through another formula to be normalized.  That is, they are strictly between 0 and 1.  This normalized rating is then used in place of the win-loss percentage, and this process repeats until a definitive ranking is formed.  In this way, not only are any one team's opponents being analyzed, but also the opponents' opponents, as well as the opponents' opponents' opponents, and so on.

On each iteration of the rankings calculations, the separation between each team's normalized ratings and the next ranked team's normalized ratings is calculated as well as the difference between each team's normalized ratings compared to that same team's normalized ratings after the previous iteration.  These are used to determine when the rankings have converged.  To do this, the minimum separation and maximum difference metrics are compared.  Both of these numbers are strictly decreasing as the number of iterations increases.  If the maximum difference is less than the minimum separation by a factor of 10 (i.e. the normalized rating that changed the most changed by at least a factor of 10 less than the smallest difference between any two teams' ratings), then I determine that the rankings have converged.

These rankings, along with other advanced computer rankings, media polls, etc. can be found at Ken Massey's Ranking Composite (https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm).  I would like to thank Ken for his dedication to this massive project he has undertaken for decades.  These rankings are compared in his project to other, similar rankings, along with relative statistics on his website.  Be sure to check it out.

CFB Rankings 2022 Final

  Rank Team Conference Score 1 Georgia SEC 0.990541 2 Ohio State Big Ten 0.965716 3 Michigan Big Ten 0.964201 4 Penn State Big Ten 0.952247 ...